Fighting the Taliban in Pakistan

Pakistan will continue to fight against its own Taliban, whose insurgency is rapidly giving way to heightened terrorism that further alienates them from all sections of the population.

Over the last few weeks, the terrorists in their murderous campaign have demonstrated calculated ruthlessness in the range and spread of their attacks. The beleaguered people of Peshawar have been a particular target. But then there was a suicide attack on the mosque in Rawalpindi targeting senior army officials and the subsequent statement by a Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) spokesman even justified the death of children at prayer. This was followed by the carnage in a crowded bazaar in Lahore and the assault on an ISI building in Multan. As the military ground offensive in South Waziristan continues to make headway, the terrorists are at pains to reinforce the message that they can strike anywhere in the country, making no distinction between combatants and innocent men, women and children. It is a wonder that some of us are still uncertain as to whose war it is. That our politico-religious parties still fight shy of condemning outright and vociferously the most barbaric acts carried out in the name of religion even when the TTP has no qualms about acknowledging these as its handiwork is a cause for deep concern as well.

Meanwhile, we have President Obama’s decision on the request for more troops for Afghanistan by the commander of US forces in the area. In a somewhat predictable move the US president has acceded to General McChrystal’s insistence for a troops surge and sanctioned 30,000 more troops for Afghanistan. At the same time, he has announced an 18-month timetable for withdrawal of the troops, prompting criticism to the effect that this will encourage the Taliban to simply wait it out before resuming a full-fledged offensive. In subsequent statements policymakers have tried to indicate that the withdrawal timeline is not a definite one and will depend on the situation on the ground. Arguably, even in the absence of a date the troops surge is unlikely to meet the objective of defeating the Afghan Taliban. There has been a sharpening of a Pakhtun nationalist sentiment to the advantage of the Taliban, and they have used the presence of US/NATO forces and the high level of civilian casualties to legitimise themselves as a force resisting occupation forces. President Hamid Karzai’s dismal track record of governance has made their task easier.

The surge is likely to push more Taliban this side of the border and increase the difficulties for Pakistan. The US is also increasing the pressure on Pakistan because of the view that Pakistan regards the Afghan Taliban as a kind of ‘insurance policy’ against the threat of encirclement by India. As such it refuses to seriously go after the so-called Quetta shura. Recently, Senator John Kerry, who heads the US senate foreign relations committee, said in effect that Pakistan needs to take on these forces in order to ensure that the US is not driven to take matters into its own hands. There has also been the threat of using drones in Balochistan against suspected Taliban/al Qaeda elements. The US, however, is very well aware, or should be, of the consequences of increased instability in Pakistan. As for drone attacks, these have accounted for a large number of deaths of innocent people, fuelling further resentment that the Taliban have made use of, balancing out any gains that may have been made through successful strikes.

On the other hand, it is a positive sign that Senator Kerry while chairing his committee hearings referred to the need for Afghanistan, Pakistan as well as India to work together for dealing with the situation. Of course, the perception is not entirely new. Originally the special envoy Richard Holbrooke had been inducted into the proceedings with a mandate that extended to India but the latter’s vociferous protest led to that part being quickly dropped, to the detriment of the enterprise. But there is some indication of a rethink here. At this point, according to Kerry, the Indo-Pak border situation has “improved” but suspicions continue to run deep between the two countries “...these are people who have gone to war three times and who have this sort of quiet war on the front in Kashmir constantly going on...so I think that it is very, very important for us to help change that equation...I think there are things we can do and some things we should pay more attention to.”

Pakistan will continue to fight against its own Taliban, whose insurgency is rapidly giving way to heightened terrorism that further alienates them from all sections of the population. In any case, they cannot conceal their ruthless drive for territory and power under the garb of fighting an occupation force. But the India factor will continue to intrude into Pakistan’s efforts to take up the grave challenge of terrorism in the way that it should. With its nuclear cooperation treaty with India, the US now enjoys an especially close relationship with that country. It can use this to good effect by encouraging India to resolve the Kashmir dispute — it should treat the Kashmiris as key interlocutors — and significantly reduce the strength of troops on the border with Pakistan. India’s stance of making dialogue with Pakistan conditional on progress in the prosecution of those responsible for the November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, or on anything else for that matter, effectively holds up the much-needed collective effort against a common enemy.

Meanwhile, Pakistan faces a crisis of governance that it needs to address relatively quickly. Under pressure or otherwise, it is a good sign that President Asif Zardari has transferred the control of the National Command Authority (NCA) to the prime minister, even if the gesture is largely symbolic. It should serve as the prelude to doing away with the 17th amendment. The effort to address the long-simmering issue of Balochistan is also very much a step in the right direction, though clearly much more needs to be done here and without too much further delay. However, for now the Supreme Court has centre-stage. It remains to be seen how far the verdict in the NRO case will go beyond individuals and technicalities in reforming the system. Given that the collective might of the Supreme Court is attending to the case, hopefully the judgment will provide some basis for curtailing individual as well as institutionalised corruption in the time to come.

Postscript: Do we have anything yet from the police or any other relevant agency on who was responsible for the firing on the Dawn columnist Kamran Shafi’s home in Wah? Or is that too much to ask for?

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore